Sales analysis and discussion, can the PSP outsell the GBA?

[mike_intellivision]

Some thoughts

Should the PSP Go be considered the same console as the PSP 1000/2000/3000?
Since the medium for games has changed -- and there is not full B/C (at least not yet), that could be considered a system shift. (Though it is in reverse since the older models actually play the newer and older games while the Go will only play the digital games).

As for the numbers, the PSP is almost 19M behind the GBA at the same point in time (weeks from launch) and almost 32M behind overall.

Last year, the PSP sold nearly 12M units. It would take almost another three years of sales at that pace to catch and pass the GBA (which is no longer sold). The question is whether a system that is already four years old (and going on its fourth hardware revision) can keep up such a constant pace. My thought is that digital distribution may be the wave of the future but over-reliance on it is not a smart strategy in the present. So PSP sales will die down after the initial PSP Go flurry. They will not be able to maintain for the next three years. And a true replacement will be announced at E3 2011 -- preventing the PSP from reaching the GBA.

Mike from Morgantown