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To me, the inclusion of Bowling in WSR is a give-away that Nintendo intends to replace WS as a pack-in game. So why is Tennis & Baseball not included? I think because of competing first-party software.

Logically, if Nintendo wants MP+ to become standard then they'll pack it in with new hardware. The fact that MS & Sony are now getting into the "movement" makes that a priority. And in addition, Nintendo is simply scared to lower the cost of the Wii because of the crappiness of the dollar. So it's better to reposition the Wii to the public as an "improved" product.