Let's say Natal launches at the end of next year. In terms of raw numbers, what will the install bases be?
More importantly, what will the price of Natal and launch line up be? For all the buzz now, come Q4 2010, Microsoft could be up against a Nintendo Wii install base sailing passed 90 million, perhaps even 100 million. Combine that with the Motion Plus install base, and the possibility of Zelda Wii launching around the time of Natal. Of course, this is all very speculative, but imagine if Natal's line up comes up against WM+ Zelda. If there is a response from Nintendo, that's the response I'd expect. As well as a new, unforeseen project aimed at whatever other blue ocean Nintendo believes exists.
EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying Zelda Wii will launch next year or that it will completely nulify Natal. I'm just saying the scenario could take place. Natal launches with a bunch of promising, flawed games and some garbage-like all new products. Nintendo launch Zelda Wii, which almost perfectly utilises 1:1 motion control in a genuinely classic game (if any game does this, I think it will be Zelda Wii).How impressive will Natal look then, especially if it launches with a Wii Sports or Wii Fit clone?
Best to bear in mind this could all be rubbish! 
