Holiday 09 - PS3 vs. 360 games

[Showertea]

This is actually a really interesting matchup. I'm going with some obvious matchups.

Splinter Cell vs. Uncharted 2: the last Splinter Cell on the 360 only sold 1.16 million, while the first Uncharted sold around 2.3 million. I expect Splinter Cell to get more sales than it's prequel, because it looks way more polished and exclusive, while Uncharted sold as well as it did because that was back when "The PS3 doesn't have any good games" was more than mere fanboyism. Too close to call, really. They're both going to LTD less than 2 million, but they're still going to see significant returns and get continuations of the franchises.

MAG vs. ODST: Battle of the acronyms. ODST is the continuation of one of the biggest franchises in gaming, but it doesn't include improved multiplayer, which is the reason people play Halo. MAG, on the other hand, is a new approach, and seems pretty innovative. This'll come down to the Halo: Reach beta key, and how hyped Reach is by then. I think ODST will definitely outsell MAG at launch, but MAG will pick up steam as word-of-mouth gets out. Halo will probably push 3-4 million LTD, while MAG, assuming it gets a strong following, will have great legs and end up in the same range.

Forza 3 vs. Ratchet: Forza wins by a mile. Forza 2 sold 4 million, while the Ratchet and Clank Future didn't make 1.5. However, I'm forseeing it being closer than that, with Forza 3 maybe getting as low as 3 mill LTD. I don't see ACIT beating the first R&C:F title, though.

Left 5 Dead vs. Demon Souls: Although L5D is going to sell less than L4D, it's going to do better than Demon Souls. Demon Souls has been out for 4 months in Japan and hasn't broken 130K, and well, the game looks very Japanese and is relying on that for it's core audience. I don't see it breaking a million. L5D might break 1.5 mill.

It's going to be pretty close, with MS titles getting a slight lead. It doesn't really matter, because Wii Fit Plus is going to outsell all 8 of those games combined.