Galaxy is going to appeal more to the current installed base and sell better than Brawl this year.
While Melee was slightly more popular than Sunshine on the Cube (6.58M vs. 5.91M), it was the long legs the game had that really helped Melee eek out the win. I believe that current Wii owners are still mostly casual and younger players. They will be more drawn to a platformer versus a fighting game. And SSB fans who are waiting for Brawl to get a Wii will have a heck of a time getting a system this holiday season and into early next year after the introduction of Wii Fit in January.
Long legs could really help Brawl win this 'fight' in the long term. But a real, high quality Mario game will give everything else on the Wii a run for it's money. And don't forget that the best selling game on the GameCube sees its sequel come out in February...
Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.
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