Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

[thx1139]

WereKitten said:

@Squill

R&D (slim, PS4, PSPGo, mobile integration) will pay for itself over time, but before that happens it's accounted as an expense.

Also, I can't see Sony's 1st party development as a "systematic problem". I doubt there's any 1st party game that fails to bring a profit, actually, and they are a great showcase for the console.

Let's face it: with all the doom and gloom, Sony must be doing something right if the PS3 routinely sells 15% less than the much cheaper - and pushed in America - 360.

As for risks, sure. A lot of things can happen. But the market situation today is so different from everything people expected 3 years ago that making projections for 2012 and after should be done with way more cautiousness. Maybe by then the handhelds will have cannibalized some sectors of the market, or Apple will have jumped in the fray, or the BluRay/HD adoption might have a post-recession rebound boom.

@WereKitten,

Correction hopefully R&D will pay for itself overtime.  It has been said many times in this thread, but it is the market that controls how long the PS3 stays on the market (unless Sony discontinues production).  Sony would still be manufacturing the PS1 if the profit margin (not simply pure profit) was there.  The PS3 is in a bad position to last 10 years.  Sony has indicated that best case scenario the PS3 operations will profitable in FY2011 (April 2010-March 2011).  It is virtually certain that MS will announce the NextBox will be announced at E3 2011.  Certainly the NextBox will show that the PS3 is indeed not "futureproof" because nothing is.  As it has been said this puts the PS3 in the position of still being at a costly price (compared to the 360 and consoles 5-6 years into its life) not nearly the most powerful and not the budget console.  

The key then is what do the retailers start to do.  Already we have seen retailers trim the size of PS3 section in stores.  The CostCo by me still sells PS3 hardware, but they dont have a dedicated PS3 software section any longer. What will it be like 2-3 years from now?  Tell you what it wont be better.