Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

[Squilliam]

WereKitten said:

@Squill

R&D (slim, PS4, PSPGo, mobile integration) will pay for itself over time, but before that happens it's accounted as an expense.

Also, I can't see Sony's 1st party development as a "systematic problem". I doubt there's any 1st party game that fails to bring a profit, actually, and they are a great showcase for the console.

Let's face it: with all the doom and gloom, Sony must be doing something right if the PS3 routinely sells 15% less than the much cheaper - and pushed in America - 360.

As for risks, sure. A lot of things can happen. But the market situation today is so different from everything people expected 3 years ago that making projections for 2012 and after should be done with way more cautiousness. Maybe by then the handhelds will have cannibalized some sectors of the market, or Apple will have jumped in the fray, or the BluRay/HD adoption might have a post-recession rebound boom.

Im starting to feel like a jerk, so I will say that the PS3 hardware and user experience are both excellent. Sony has done a great job with the PS3 and their efforts are worthwhile.

The reason why I state that they are likely having trouble with their 1st party software sales is that they are one of the largest publishers of software in the world and all large software publishers are having trouble. You don't define their profitability by the games they release, because so many games simply do not make it to the light of day, and there are many bundles which we cannot distinguish from sales.

The 360 is selling about 1/3rd more than the PS3 in America (rough) as at last weeks numbers, however the Xbox 360s ASP is about $270 which is about a third less than the PS3 so on balance both consoles can do equally well in the market. Its up to Sony/Microsoft really to win it between them.

Yes, you need caution. A new console could fizzle or it could completely take over the market and the market conditions themselves could change. But this is the danger for the PS3 as a console as the profitability that it needs is projected into the uncertain future.