@Squill
R&D (slim, PS4, PSPGo, mobile integration) will pay for itself over time, but before that happens it's accounted as an expense.
Also, I can't see Sony's 1st party development as a "systematic problem". I doubt there's any 1st party game that fails to bring a profit, actually, and they are a great showcase for the console.
Let's face it: with all the doom and gloom, Sony must be doing something right if the PS3 routinely sells 15% less than the much cheaper - and pushed in America - 360.
As for risks, sure. A lot of things can happen. But the market situation today is so different from everything people expected 3 years ago that making projections for 2012 and after should be done with way more cautiousness. Maybe by then the handhelds will have cannibalized some sectors of the market, or Apple will have jumped in the fray, or the BluRay/HD adoption might have a post-recession rebound boom.
