Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

[WereKitten]

theRepublic said:

WereKitten said:

theRepublic said:

Don't you realize why it is game over?  Once a new gen starts, software support for the second and third place consoles of the previous gen is going to dry up.

So how exactly would the Xbox or GBA keep selling without software support?

You speak as if it's a law of nature, but it isn't so. At best you're projecting in the future mechanics that happened how many times? Two, three? And this time with different technologies, economic conditions etc.

When did in the past the second and third place console constitute almost a single development platform?

When did in the past the development cost of a game baloon to such proportions, and in the same way the time required to develop the middleware needed to make a profit?

The game is changing all the time. Looking back at NES and SNES, Genesis, N64 and PS1 is simplistic. How the development will work in 2012-2013 has still to be written. It could very well be that both MS and SONY pull a Wii and release upgraded versions of their machines, but similar enough that simultaneous development can happen for the two generations.

You think the market is going to support six consoles?  I don't.

You have no imagination then. It's supporting four right now - the bottleneck being in the content development more than the buyers - and the market being expanded with each "generation".

Development for PC/PS4/NextBox/PS3/360/Wii2 could be simpler than today's PC/PS3/360 + PS2 + Wii.

Plus, diminishing returns are starting to show on the hardware front.

@Squilliam

And still, even with the Wii being the only co-developed platform, the PS2 sells a good amount of software and a respectable quantity of hardware. Next time PS3+360 could take its place, with maybe a smaller install base but a more "standard" development toolchain.

@Nightsurge

I've explained my reasons yet in my previous posts. You're welcome to come up with a rebuttal to those, a similitude with TVs and iPods is quite poor because in this case what kills or makes a console is its content ie its library.

Each time a new console is not perfectly backward compatible, it's more akin to a format change, not just upgrading your old TV to a new model. And adoption of DVD/HD TVs/BluRay have shown that there's a growing resistance  to adoption of new technologies as the benefits of the investment look smaller and smaller.