Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

[nightsurge]

WereKitten said:

nightsurge said:

WereKitten said:
@Nightsurge
You answered the wrong post, read my previous one. The NextBox won't make up for the loss of selling PS3 software for years after its inception, and it will take its market mostly out of the 360's. With the PS2 end of line, there will be no rational reason to entirely cut one out of three of the big console lines.

But the PS3 will be cut first based on shelf space.  The NextBox would more than makeup for any loss in PS3 software sales, that and the 360, Wii, and Wii 2.  Retailers cannot support all the shelving space and especially given the drastic situation in the US.  The PS3 would be discontinued there because of lack of shelf space and it would have the lowest software sales even when compared to the 360 and Wii after their counterparts are released.

Basically if retailers followed what you are proposing, we would still have PS1s, N64s, Gamecubes, and original Xboxes for sale....

You keep saying the same thing but no, the numbers tell that it won't. It doesn't matter if the PS3 is third out of three, even on the american market it sells almost two thirds as much software as the 360 (and likely going to grow as the install base ratio changes). It will take the NextBox years to reach that level of software sales with some continuity, and that will also mean that the 360 software sales will go down, making it even less profitable cutting the PS3 to allot the same space to 360 and new space to the NextBox.

PS1, N64 and other old consoles are not a good comparison simply because they would sell a tiny quantity of software in absolute and relative terms. Having a section dedicated to an old console that sells like 2% of the total might not make sense, but with the PS3 today we're talking about 20% of all the software sales on the American market. The rational way to go is to cut the PS2 space, not the PS3.

I keep saying the same things because you don't seem to get them.  They are the truth, despite what you may think of the current situation.

What happened when the Xbox 360, Wii, and PS3 released?  Only the PS2 remained for longer than a few months (the market leader and the one with the most software selling potential).  Now the roles are reversed with the PS3 in last and the Wii in front.  Once the next generation starts, the Wii will last longest, the Xbox 360 to a shorter extent, and the PS3 will be cut first because it will continue to have the lowest possibility of selling software.

The only way the PS3 will live for 10 years at retail in the US is if Sony waits for 10 years to release a new console.