Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

[binary solo]

I think there is some flawed logic here. Especially around the motivation for third party support moving away from PS3 towards Wii. I had a look at SW sales on the Wii very briefly and in a rather unscientific way, but still it is a reasonable sample I think. Checking the WW latest top 50 WW weekly Nintendo sales chart the ONLY 3rd party game In that list to crack 5 million World wide LTD on the Wii is Mario and Sonic at the Olympics, and that includes a much beloved Nintendo 1st party character. The stellar Wiii titles are ALL first party. PS3 with it's less than half install base is holding its own with third party SW sales volume very well, and if you factor in the fact that so much third party HD software is PS360 I'd imagine the HD twins are on par with Wii, at a minimum. Given this picture, third party developers would be shooting themselves in the foot if they left PS3 en masse. PS3 has a large enough install base and, recent figures notwithstanding, ongoing sales that 3rd party developers can achieve profitable sales and have good prospect for future growth on the PS3. It might not mean a large number of PS3 thrid party exclusives, but PS360 titles will continue to be released and will sell well. I'm happy as long as we see a Valkyria Chronicles 2, and I don't care if it is exclusive or not.

I'm actually very happy with PS3's position right now. There are really only 3 things that can spoil the PS3 party: a prolonged recession that sees console sales tanking over an extended period, which means the highest priced console will tank the worst; Sony not making the PS3 price more attractive; and further delays on the release of already known key exclusive titles. None of these factors have anything to do with competing consoles.

Here's my prediction: if the OP is right and the PS3 will be dead (and considered by Sony as a failed console) within a year or 2 there will be no PS4. Staying in the console manufacturing market requires PS3 to be counted as a reasonable success in its own right (even though relative to Wii and 360 it may may finish in 3rd place). This does not mean it has to achieve the 10-year benchmark, but it certainly needs to reach the 6-7 year lifespan.

There are still a lot of people yet to enter the current console generation, PS3 is reasonably poised to pick up a decent share of those people. There is good reason to be optimistic for PS3, but it does require to planets to allign in their favour a wee bit.