I think Microsoft is the most likely to do it first because I think they have the most to gain. They can stand to break even on the Hardware because the software division of the company is profitable and the likely reason they recently made the elite version more marketable (halo 3 and Fable 2 edition) is to balance an upcoming price drop on their lower SKU's (it helps raise the average selling price.)
I think we are likely to see a price drop from all 3 manufacturers this year, my predictions are
Xbox 360 arcade at $150, Pro at $250, and elite at $300 ($300 elite partially to force Sony down to $300 for larger losses)
Sony PS3 current 80 GB goes to $300 to get phased out
then replaced with the 160 GB at $300 for the holiday season
and then a new backward compatible SKU to be added at $400
Nintendo Wii I think they will analyze their pricing this year but they will be the last to do it, if the other manufacturers have a lot of success with their price drops they will drop to $199, if SONY and MS aren't posting large gains Nintendo only drops about $30.
