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I think 350k first month ... but it will have long, long, loooooooong legs and strong word-of-mouth. 

A lot of people in their late 20s and 30s are going to freak out when they see this. Everything from the 80s is cool again -- Super Mario Bros, 80s sneakers, Transformers, etc. This will hit a nerve with nostalgics IMO. 

The graphics and animation are excellent too. The TV commercials are great, probably the best for a "core" Nintendo game in ages. 

It'll be like a smaller version of Mario Kart Wii but I suspect it will sell for a while.