Speaking in purely a hypothetical sense, a slim PS3 with all the functionality of the current 80GB sku priced at $299.99 would consistently outsell the 360 priced at $199.99, $249.99, and $299.99 for the Arcade, Pro, and Elite models respectively in every region on a weekly basis.
The only questionable period where the 360 might manage to outsell the PS3 at those price points for a small number of weeks is during the holiday rush in Q4 where bargain pricing is at a all-time high, but even this far from assured. Furthermore, should the suggested price cut for the PS3 come during October or later, there is little hope for the 360 at it's current price to ever outsell the PS3 at $299.99 until it has a price drop of it's own.
Speaking of which, should Microsoft attempt to immediately compete with a $299.99 PS3, they would need to issue a price cut for the cheapest model of AT LEAST $50 in America and $30 in Europe and Japan ($149.99 worldwide) to possibly outsell the PS3 for any number of weeks this holiday, but by the end of December PS3 will almost definitely begin outselling it once again. In order for 360 to outsell the PS3 at $299.99 for anything more than a relatively marginal amount during a couple of weeks at the end of November and early December would be to have a price difference of $170 or more between the two consoles. The moment that Microsoft can no longer maintain that magic $170 difference between the two consoles is when I believe the PS3 will begin to consistently outsell the 360 for the rest of this generation.
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