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i think not. At best it will be like the PS2 and be all but dead after 9 years. But also the PS3 is not going to sell nearly as many consoles as the PS2 did so that will hurt its longevity as its not as solid of a platform. 3rd parties will move on much like they did with the xbox and gamecube.

If anything the wii will last the longest (software wise)



Long Live SHIO!