I think new SKU will result in close to double the sales, with sales staying stable or even increasing towards the holidays.
After the holidays things will start to cool down, even with all the big game releases. It will level off around 40 K with occassional bumps due to big game releases.
gorgepir: Yes, PS3 has already lost. People don't believe it, but the war was decided when Nintendo and Sony came up with their respective business plans 2-3 years ago. Nintendo's plan was good, Sony's was bad. The best Sony can hope for at this point is to come back and steal second place from Microsoft thanks to constant price-slashing.
Edit: actually, the best Sony can hope for is for Nintendo to really drop the ball on its "blue ocean" business plan. If Nintendo and third parties fail to come up with more interesting products along the lines of Wii Sports, the "Wii fad" argument could come true.
