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So much low-hanging fruit, so little time...

Most of your post is speculative. Price cut. PS3 exclusives will be much better. Etc.

The biggest card Sony has up its sleeve, console sales-wise, is the fact that the console hasn't reached the magic $200 price point, yet, meaning there will likely be a significant surge if it reaches that price. *IF* it reaches that price. There's a whole lotta hardware in that box, and I can imagine it's going to take some doing to get the price down to that point. And Sony needs to get the price way down fast, not 2-3 years from now. This generation will probably be over in 3-4 years, regardless how often Sony claims the PS3 will last 10 years. It's not up to them... it's up to the market to decide.