gunnar2906 on 02 October 2007
| gunnar2906 said: Do you smartguys think I should use logarythms calculating the numbers and getting 135k in my calculations? Or should I use the statistic raws of distribution or linear programming for statistical analysis? The most of you was unable even to calculate the correct number of days passed from the date of release. The term of sales used in calculations (3 days) is extremely small to have a huge deviations to use more precise method of statistical analysis. I'll try to proven my easiest way of simple dividing or multiplying on the simle example of a bit more complex method. Like in a basic school with apples and oranges. The last week of reported sales began at Sunday and ended at Saturday, right? An usual boost of sales happens at wekends. Statisticaly people spend 2/3 of their money for 'easy stuff' like enterntainment, games etc at weekends. Sunday was not included in the last week's sales so you can easily add at least 33% to 77000. So we got 2 unaccounted days left. Averagely the rest 33% can be divided by 5 working days to get 13%. Deviations between working days are not so important in this case. That means that we should add at least 46% to the 77000. So we get 112 000 (calculated) copies sold making HS to be at the top of the list. HS is not a highly anicipated title. It is a new title. It is not overhyped. PS3 has the lack of good titles for it. That all means that there was no considerable boost of sales for the first 1-2 days. An average PS3 owner can come to a shop without a high intention of buying exactly HS. It let me consider that HS will have steady and not very high sales for a few weeks. Dont forget that you here are just a tiny part of console owners (dreamers) who are a little more informed. But this calculations wont work for a highly overhyped and advertised title when sales boost when sales are based on agiotage of first saling hours or days. |
I dunno how it came but it was only 77 445 copies in the first week of sales .... the second one added 56 632: it should be .... 134 077 copies for 2 weeks... but hm ... vgcharts - thanks it is 153 438 totally sold copies...
it is ok ppl ... as i wrote a week ago - at first week the game was sold about 100 - 110 copies.
nice maths ppl =))
