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Let's see.... Microsoft has repeatedly stated it wants to pursue more casual gamers.
And the PS2's wild success was because of them, a point most assuredly not lost on Sony and it's limited success with the PS3.
Casual gamers are embracing the Wii, it's motion controls, and there's no question the Wiimote is superior to dual analogue for shooting.

I think next generation will be not only be motion controlled but all about who does it best.