The PS-Double

[Steve 3.2]

PS2 games are going to continue to sell well through this year and into next. The installed base is massive and there will be plenty of people who won't or can't pick up a new system. The same thing has happened with each winner of the video game generation. NES sales were strong a few years into the Genesis/SNES cycle, SNES games sold well into the N64/PS1 era, etc. So while Xbox and GC releases have dried up, we'll see new titles on the PS2 until sometime in 2008.

The sales of a console are always based on the games on it not the technology in it. NES won because of Nintendo's first party titles and control over third parties. SNES had a similar situation, but faced a serious challenge from the Genesis/MegaDrive due to Sega's arcade ports and EA's sports titles. Since it was so much cheaper to publish games on the spacious CDs, the PS1 had more games. It also didn't hurt that Sony wasn't afraid of more mature titles like Resident Evil. And the PS2 continued to have greater third party support and their RPGs and a title called Grand Theft Auto helped a lot.

As we enter this generation, there's a new paradox. It costs a lot to take full advantage of the Xbox 360 and PS3. And at this point in time the installed base on the PS3 isn't high enough to justify those costs. Sony promised better sales to third parties and movie studios, but it's clean that the PS3 won't live up to those projections. As such, exclusives are getting ported to both systems and developers are jumping through hoops to support the Wii. How will this play out? That really depends oh what games wind up on what systems and where player loyalties lie. I think this generation may be the best one since the 16 bit days with competitors having a much more equal share of the market and each system having it's strengths and weaknesses.

(Oh, as and side, the Dreamcast died due to a lack of support from EA and other key publishers. Many consumers also felt burned by Sega in the Sega CD/32X/Saturn years.)