It would take a $99-149 Wii to see any sort of significant increase (well beyond tenths of percentage points) in market share, almost three years into the current console cycle.
That's the price at which virtually anyone with only a casual interest in video games would be likely to pick one up on impulse or without a great deal of thought over the matter.
But the most likely trend will be that the Wii continues to sell roughly half of the current gen consoles being sold.
At this point in the generation, big new games or IPs, 1st or 3rd party regardless, will only result in temporary bumps in hardware sales, similar to what is seen on the Xbox and PS3.
But barring any major unforseen changes in the console business, it's already too late for the Wii to see the same level of dominance that the PS2 saw last generation.
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