wii marketshare, the road to 40%!

[saicho]

trestres said:

KBG29 said:
I think it could be as soon as Febuary or March of next year. It all depends on E3. If Sony and MS come back with more multimedia, motion controllers, and 3D then things will start to get interesting. Through in a $100 cut for PS3, $20, $50, $50 for 360, and $50 for Wii, and the market should become extreamly unpredictible.

 

For the Wii to go back to 40%, what is needed is for the wii to start selling less than 40% for the week. Hell it will have to start selling into the 35% or less for it to happen as fast as you say and in a consistent basis. Whih means that according to you a console will start outselling the Wii in a weekly basis for the rest of the year. This week the Wii sold 47,5% of all consoles, so apparently it's not gonna happen anytime soon, unless some terrorist or guvernmental group attacks Nintendo's factories.

It's either that or the Wii should start selling 40%, but if the Wii starts selling 40% of consoles anddoes so forever, it will take infinity, yes read that, infinity for it to reach 40%.

I guess we'll see after the next big bang!

trestres, 35% would be too high.

In the first 4 months of 2008, Wii, 360 and PS3 sold about 10 million units. In the same time period this year, the 3 consoles sold about 12 million units. Wii, 360 and PS3 sold a little over 45 million unis in 2008 and assuming the sale increase by 20% in 2009, the 3 consoles will sell 52 millions units which would 40 million additional units between now and the end of the year. I'll add another 9.1 millions units for Jan-Mar 2010 base on the average of the sale in Jan-Mar 2008 (8.2 millions) and Jan-Mar 2009 (10 Millions). That's 49.1 millions additional units sold for Wii, 360 and PS3 combined.

If Wii only has 35% of the sales, that's 49.1 * 35% = 17.185 millions plus 49.33 millions it is currently at then we have 66.515 millions units sold for Wii. The overall market at that time would be (49.33 + 30.06 + 21.89) + 49.1 = 150.38 million units. Therefore, Wii would have 66.515/150.38 = 44.23% of market share. Base on this calculation, Wii will have to sell 22.04% of the overall market for the next 11 months in order to go down to 40% of market share. I do believe there is a better chance for Gozilla to come back than this happening but I have been wrong before.