I'm not sure what you expect the gaming landscape to be when the next gen comes out, but this is what I see: (let me know what you think)
As has been said many times this generation is different. Even with a clearly dominant console, all three are doing well and receiving support. There is no terrible component deal or languishing sales to make anyone take Jr off the market when Sr comes to play. So we may have:
$100 Xbox 360
$120 PS3
$120 Wii
"Current Gen" (learning lessons)
$300 - 400 Xbox 720
$300 - 400 PS4
$250 - 300 Wii2
So, who is going to buy PS3s in droves?
- People not in this generation yet? After being beat over the head with every price cut possible, the only people left will be ultra casual... and they will most likely buy a Wii.
- Current Wii owners? The hardcore will be lining up for miles to get the Wii2, the moderates and casuals will wait.
- Current 360 owners? Same as the Wii, with fewer waiting because of HaloX
Also, what will the software landscape be?
Big budget games will be reserved for the current generation. There will still be considerable past gen support, but devs will have no reason to not go multiplatform because they are no longer trying to please the hardcore.
"You can never jump away from Conclusions. Getting back is not so easy. That's why we're so terribly crowded here."
Canby - The Phantom Tollbooth
