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As much as I hate to say it, Halo 3 was bigger. Can't say they would have a big long-term effect though. I'd say the first Halo was more important; Halo 3 just secured the brand on 360. And MGS4... Well, just another huge game but not that much of an impact.

Halo >>> Halo 3 > MGS (series)

Of course MGS4 was an important exclusive; it was the only huge PS3-exclusive. Maybe MGS4 is not important but losing it could have been.