WereKitten said:
^
I'm just throwing numbers around, but...
The PS3 gives negative profit on the hardware now. Let's say that after the 45nm chips this summer they manage to reduce the price and still to start gathering a small profit, even a few dollars. Let's assume that profit will grow with later hardware revisions, and that by the end of life of the console it will average to $25 per sale. Let's estimate that in another 40M consoles x $25 = 1B dollars.
Then there's software. It sold 130M up to this point in life. Can we say it will sell at least another 350-500M? I don't know how many of those will be third party, how many will be first party, but am I entirely wrong in thinking there's more than 4B dollars only there?
Then there's services. From ripping off Home users for clothes and furniture, to using the console as a streaming media center for movie and tv rentals, I'm sure they're planning to make more money that way. I can't quantify this right now, but every little dozen million helps, doesn't it.
Then there's the indirect added value: the 2007 passive includes, I suspect, R&D that will bring profits in terms of BluRay royalties and savings in terms of Cell utilization in other Sony products.
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While I agree with this in principle, one thing comes to mind:
The Ps2 had 6 years, and yet it only made ~ 3B. Why? The mere thought that the Ps3, which has higher development costs, should be far more profitable than the Ps2 ever was seems incredibly odd, wouldn't you agree?
We quite simply lack a view of all the expenses and incomes to make a correct assumption (like you attempted).
