I dunno... I think the Wii will last as long as Nintendo wants it to.
There are some things that are working for Nintendo right now, as opposed to the PS3 and Xbox360:
- Nintendo is not losing money for each Wii sold; the other two are, so in that sense they probably are very close to, if not already, recouped their R&D, marketing and manufacturing expenditure
- Nintendo does not need a giant user base; it just needs enough, and current momentum suggests it may reach that magic number sooner than later; the PS3, on the other hand, requires a giant user base to cover game dev costs and hardware losses; Xbox can't afford to lose money either (although Microsoft does treat most of its investments as "charities", but for how long?)
- Nintendo can drop prices anytime they want to and still underprice the other two, spurring more sales; the other two would probably be loath to do the same right now
- Nintendo's strategy does not focus on graphics quality, and has attracted a demographic (moms, pops, casual gamers, non-gamers who probably have never seen, or care for, "nex-gen graphics") that doesn't really care for graphics in the sense that PS3 and Xbox360 would like them to
- Third world countries would rather buy a 250usd console rather than a 400-600usd console, not because it's better or worse, but because it's affordable (I live in a first-world country but am from the third world, and believe me, prices are EVERYTHING!); too bad there aren't any sales data concentrating on said countries. Believe it or not, many of these countries are still selling SNES compatible consoles because most people simply can't afford anything else. I used to sell - get this - cloned NES systems to Mexico as recently as four years ago. If that isn't testament to the (lack of) buying power of third world countries, I don't know what is.
- Nintendo still has its "TEH KIDDIEZ!!!111one!" to count on; once prices drop for the Wii, it may become the "Gameboy Advance / NDS Lite" of the console world (and we all know how well those systems sold)
- I still think Nintendo is right with their "the current graphics are good enough" mantra - just look at the graphics on the DS - lousy compared to the PSP, yet outselling it 2:1; in the eyes of the new demographic, it most certainly is enough. Not to say I don't think the PS3 and Xbox 360 has fantastic graphics, but most people within the Wii's demographic have never raised an issue about the graphics looking "lousy"
Anyway, my 2 cents'...
