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Sony needs to get their bundle game right.  Even before a price drop, they need to actually be putting games that people want in the box.  MGS4, Killzone 2 and LBP are games that imo, make the current price much more palpatable.  I'm on Amazon.com right now and it seems like there is no bundled game with the $400 PS3.  I think thats a massive blunder.

A $349 or $300 PS3 with zero games vs a 360 with Halo 3 and Fable 2 isn't a compelling purchaser for a gamer.  Especially with news that $99 Blu-Ray players are coming this year.  Sony needs to really throw some games in the box, and not 2nd string titles like Uncharted or Resistance.  Halo 3 is MS' biggest franchise and  the headlining game for the system.  Fable 2 is another huge game.  Sony needs to counter with some of their big name games in the box.  Even if they can't do 2 super huge games, one big name and one 2nd string game (Resistance 2, Uncharted, Ratchet, etc) would be a hell of alot better than zero games at all.

If both systems have some heavy titles in the box and are the same price, I think Sony walks away the victory in terms of $300 consoles.  I don't think they can do too much to really slow down the 360 Arcade though.  That thing is dirt cheap as is and is probably the only choice for mid-middle class families.