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If Microsoft tosses a price drop in there on top of GTA and Halo, I don't see why it would happen this year. Globally Nintendo's got games that can match those (maybe, and assuming no delay), but Nintendo's first party games will get stomped in the west. I don't see it happening early next year either unless both systems are for some reason going at the same rate they are now. Best case scenario would be end of next year, but it's highly dependent on just how big the acceptance is in Japan.