Microsoft, Channel Stuffing and Desperation: Old Tricks for a New Era

[Erik Aston]

Great article.

Despite the perceived success, XBox is a brand in a desperate place. Lets consider the original statement from MS... They said they'd do 10 million units before their competitors hit the shelves... That would be a 12 month timeframe... MS hit 10.4 million shipped through 14 months. They might finally hit 10 million sold through 18 months.

Their goal of 12 million through June, originally thought to be "totally clearing out the retail channels for a summer price cut," in fact will probably come no where close to clearing out retail. At under 500K a month WW, they could be below 11 million units through June. And with a spring launch for Elite at a RAISED price, they can't be planning a summer price cut, can they?

Fact is, despite slowly-but-surely moving beyond what XBox1 did in terms of monthly and overall sales, 360 has effectively delayed its chance at breaking into the mainstream until the fall and Xmas season. They could easily be the second place console by then. But a lot of people won't realize it, as MS may overship units in June and September, too.

A product that is performing to expectations, or even reasonably close to expectations, doesn't need overinflated shipment numbers.