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puffy on 20 April 2009
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Gnizmo said:
WereKitten said:
I appreciate the effort put into this data-gathering, but I think it's way too coarse to make it useful in predictive terms.
The obvious problem with categorizing the data by console is that the three platforms have very different library compositions, especially the Wii vs the PS3/360.
As such, trying to predict anything about the long-term sales of a game based on its initial sales on a given platform will be totally unreliable unless the game is homogeneous in genre and target audience with the majority of the console library.
An analysis with real predictive power should try to model the sales of games in a parametric way and gather average parameters for the various genres/contexts.

 Obviously this is a work in progress. The big problem with expanding the info is trying to come up with a solid definition for the different categories of the game. Based on my not quite arbitrary definition of casual and core you still have significant differences between what is needed to sell a million on the respective consoles.

Gnizmo is doing an excellent job trying to solve this problem right now. It's difficult but it's getting there.. The first numbers we have so far point to Wii core games needing a higher start but it's still a fair amount lower than the PS3/360 first week sales. I'm sure Gnizmo will update the thread once he has completed his research. It's just very difficult to work out the differences and where to draw the line I guess.. 

We'll do our best and of course we'll keep people posted once a more solid understanding of sales has been found. I'll also be tracking some noteworthy titles in the coming months and seeing if they follow the pattern we have so far.