The Damning Truth: The percentage of LTD sales sold in the first week

[Oyvoyvoyv]

puffy said:

MaxwellGT2000 said:
Amazing work man, really haven't seen such solidly built info put into a thread in a while.

It looks to be like this PS3 and 360 can get you higher sales if it's a hit right off the bat, but if it doesn't make a nice splash it'll flop really hard, couple that with costs and you might be out millions on top of millions.

Wii can have mild openers and sell a solid amount, but may never reach as high, but you're less likely to have a flop, and if you do it's not as dangerous.

So it's like pick your poison you can either be amazing or die on PS360 or just be solid on the Wii with no really wow numbers but it'll be work work horse keeping steady.

These are really good points.. I'm wondering also.. is it possible to use the statistics to perhaps say if a Wii title sells 1 Million in its first week, it's safe to say it'll sell around 10 million copies give or take 10%? Could you also say that a 360 title that launches with sales of 1 Million should get to sales of 5 Million give or take 10%? I'd like to look deeper into solving that issue.. Then see where it goes wrong, such as with front loaded sequels and find multipliers for them.

So it's possible that if Wii number are small they can still end up with a good result but if they are very large.. You could end up with mammoth sales, not saying that's true but it'd be interesting to look into

 

I started writing here about why that wouldn't work with large openings, as they don't follow the same pattern. Surprisingly, only a few titles actually broke the pattern by a large amount.

So I guess this could work.

Maybe +/- 20% would be better though.

 

There are a few Wii titles that completely break the Wii pattern, and rather join the more Ps360-esque ones. Like Brawl, which should end at ~ 20-25% in first week.

 

 

 

I also think people should just ignore Cueil's last post, as that discussion may very well derail the thread completely (which would be a shame, considering how incredibly interesting it is). Just leave it at that it's misinformed, and don't quote him.