| Gnizmo said: There is one major flaw with your final conclusion that I almost hate to point out. Without showing how many games opened with similar number and yet failed to make a million its not safe to say games opening to those numbers will make a million. Unfortunately the number needs a bit of additional work to make the last jump there. |
Maybe so however it's an average and there are always going to be outliers or times that the number needs a modifier of some sort.. An example is if you are looking at a sequel it is usually always more front loaded and if a sequel does the same or worse in the first week/month it can be almost instantly concluded that it will actually do worse overall than the last game in the series. I'm not trying to give all the answers as nobody can 100% mathematically predict the sales of a game but we can see a few things very clearly from the results.. The major one being the difference in sales patterns in Wii and HD consoles. That was the key argument I was trying to support/disprove and I think, to me, it supports the argument that calling Wii games a flop after only a week of sales is ridiculous.. These numbers point to that being the case.
For me to go through every game that launched with similar numbers but failed to make a million would be a MASSIVE task and so my numbers will stand as they are.
