Well yesterday's NPD sure is confusing.
Pachter, EEDAR and VGC all had GTA: CW over 200k for example (Pachter even 450k). Now sure we can say that Pachter and Divinich are "mere analysts" but they DO research. I think GTA: CW under 80k is too much of a discrepancy tbh.
I don't live in the US, so I don't know how bad the situation is there, but a 33% collapse in hardware seems extreme too.
However NPD does have the highest data coverage, so should be statistically closest.