I really hope Spore is a mega-hit. If the Sims can do 16 million, certainly Spore can do 20. Right? Right? Meh. It could do 4 or 5 million this year though, and climb from there.
Wii Play will sell at least 5 million during the 2007 calender year.
Halo 3 will do 3 million in its debut month. 6 mil in 2007 overall.
GTA 4 probably won't reach a combined 10 mil in 2007, but it will soon after. Eventually reaches about 12 mil combined.
Mario could do 1.5 mil in all three regions in 2007, which is pretty unique. Total 5 mil, eventually climbing to right around 10 mil. Question is: does Nintendo even feel the need to release this game this year?
DQ9 will do a quick 4.5 mil in Japan (is it pushed back to 08? I forget.) It will also be a surprisingly large hit in the West, doing over 1.5 mil outside of Japan (hype+lower cost threshold compared to PS versions=hit), but that will be 2008 for sure...
If MGS4 is indeed released this year... It will not reach 5 mil... Ever.
Brawl will also come short of 5 million this year (if released), but it will make it next year. Hmm... Notice a unique theme over these last 4?
Pokemon will do about 8-9 million between NA and Europe in 2007... And the better part of another million in Japan. Lifetime WW sales will eventually climb up to 17 million, give or take.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
