American sales: Halo 2 vs. Halo 3 vs. Nintendogs vs. anything on Wii

[Erik Aston]

Battle of the mega-games. Which will end with the highest American sales total?

Halo 2 has done the preposterous by maintaining a decent level of sales two years after it's console was discontinued. VGChartz estimates total American sell-through at right around 6.5M, and certainly Halo 3 hype will give Halo 2 another boost of sales. Over 350K copies have been sold just in 2007.

So far, it looks like Halo 3 will have a slightly worse launch than Halo 2 in terms of unit sales, which is to be expected given the lower install base and higher price threshold. But with a September launch, Halo 3 has plenty of time to beat Halo 2's total 2004 sales, and then will have as many as 4 years to rack up additional sales before the next XBox launches. There's no doubt the title will have mile-long legs, just as it's predecessors did.

Nintendogs has followed one of the most ridiculous sales patterns maybe of any game ever. VGChartz estimates it as the 5th (6th now that Halo 3 has launched) best-selling game of 2007 with sales of 1.3 million, and total sales topping 5.5 million. It hasn't topped 2.5M units in a single year, let alone a single day, and yet it could catch Halo 2 by this time next year.

Other than Wii Sports and Wii Play, is there any game on Wii which will ever be able to move as much as these three games? Even with half the install base, Nintendo 64 had the top FOUR best-selling games of it's generation in America, so the "higher eventual install base" argument means basically nothing. Games like Mario and Smash Bros. proved uncompetitive with Halo last gen (though Super Mario 64 sales still sit above Halo 2 for the time being), nor moved as much as Nintendogs despite the DS install base only recently passing the GC install base. Games like Animal Crossing do their mega-numbers in Japan and Europe, and games like Wii Fit are hard to predict, and would certainly be a success if they moved "only" 4M copies in America.

Personally, I expect Halo 3 and Nintendogs to both pass Halo 2, Super Mario 64, and 7M unit sales. Whether either will make a run at 8M remains to be seen. And as for Wii... While Super Mario Galaxy may outsell Super Mario 64 on a worldwide basis, it will be harder in America where N64 was very successful--basically as big as SNES. And Smash Brawl may beat Halo 2 and 3 on a worldwide basis, but in America where Halo sells the bulk of it's units, it will be nearly impossible.

And on a worldwide basis, Nintendogs will move as much as Halo 2 and Halo 3 combined.