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Erik Aston said:
Well, day 1 Halo 3 sales SHOULD be lower than day 1 Halo 2 sales. Halo 2 had a larger install base and a lower price threshold. Even MS themselves never said they were aiming to beat Halo 2's day 1 unit sales, just revenue. IIRC, Halo 2 did about 2.5M first day, for $125M in revenue. MS actually wanted to beat Spiderman 3's $150M first day opening, to have the biggest 1 day total in entertainment history.

So if this 1M online transfers to 2M purchases, they would need the average price to be $75 to beat $150M, which could be possible with a minimum price of $60, and the highest SKU well above $100.

At worst, they should beat that Halo 2 number.

I expect there'll be an MS press release tomorrow or Thursday.

Hrmm.  Good analysis.  By your analysis though it seems unlikely that they will reach their goal of beating Spider-Man 3 with the early reports, unless jasonnic's link is accurate.  However, I'm not too sure about that one since it would mean that 60% of Halo 3 owners never logged online even though their games come with 48 hours of free Xbox Live.