I'd guess sometime around Christmas. I'm just not sure if it will before or after. It depends so much on what the competition does how sales are for the Wii. I think that no matter what, sales will be good. Although I think Nintendo might want to stay far ahead so they might lower the price before Christmas. And considering that production costs have obviously gone down sinch launch, the can afford to lower it to almost anything they want.
My guess is $219.99 sometime between mid November and "Black Friday (US)"
EDIT- I just realized I failed this thread. I'll stick with what I said above but that didn't answer the question to the thread. I don't think their first price drop will make it under $200. I think if anything, they might also bundle the console with Wii Sports 2. So as to when I think they'll go under $200...hmmm...maybe before Christmas of 2010.
I'll come up with something better eventually...
