Grooski said:
Hmm, maybe. But then again:
(i) 22 million served and counting in just over 2.5 years... Which makes the slowest selling console Sony has ever released. (ii) NO loss of 3rd party support, in fact, more exclusive X360are now making its way to the PS3, indicating an INCREASE in support. Vast majority of titles now releasing day and date with their counterparts. The PS1 and PS2 had EXCLUSIVE third party support. The PS3 having trouble getting equal support for the third parties. Games continue to hit the 360 first and then the PS3 later. (iii) PS3 outselling the X360 at the same cycle point. The PS3 is selling slower than PS1, PS2, and Wii at the same cycle point. The 360 had a 5.5. million unit lead when the PS3 launched. The 360 currently has a 8.2 million unit lead over the PS3. (iv) Anticipated 33 million console sales by end Dec 09 Which is lower than both the Wii and 360. (vi) Profitability of console in Q2/Q3 likely Unfortunately for Sony, Nintendo was profitable from day one. Even if the PS3 becomes profitable, it's highly unlikely to make up for all of the financial losses. It will not make up for the lost marketshare. (vii) Increased revenues from game sales, launch of video store in PAL, launch of music download service in all territories exponentially increasing the operating revenues of Sony Game. Home to expand with increased publisher support. Don't like Home? Its a revenue cash cow.... who cares if you don't. Strengthen this with increased PS3 and PSP software sales and you have an excellent mix at profits from Q3 2009 onward. Revenue means nothing. Profit however does. Even when the 360 and X-box before it were losing money, the were both generating signficant revenue. Take Two's revenue was through the roof with GTAIV's release, unfortunately their profits were not. The problem Sony faces and Nintendo does too at much lesser extent. Currency. The Europe/PAL market would be the source of tremendous profit however the strong yen has made certain that isn't the case. (viii) As for coming last, what does coming second and outselling its competitor get Microsoft??? Nothing...because the PS3 install base is now too high. You can't moneyhat exclusives anymore when you have to cover expected sales for this fanbase. As this fanbase rises, so does expected return on development costs for EVERY third party release making development now worthwhile. What does that net Microsoft? A weakened Playstation brand. MS won't have to pay as much for money hats and Sony will not have the overwhelming free support that comes with being the reigning market leader. Sony will have to work just as hard if not harder than Microsoft for third party support. Coming off the succes of the PS1 and PS2. Third parties assumed Sony would be console leader and started up projects with little no financial incentives. The PS4 won't have that luxury. Its now past the point of mattering who comes second this gen because it is nothing but fanboy service. More and more the focus will return to profitability. A larger userbase isn't fanboy service. It provides a higher ceiling for software sales which in turn leads to more profits. The higher the userbase the less of a financial incentive a hardware manufacturer has to give third parties for exclusive content. A lower userbase means less leverage for a hardware manufacturer in negotations with a third party company for content. Koller is dead right. Having a massive devlopment team is a huge advantage as we move further on this gen. That is about the only thing he did get right. A strong internal development team takes away the reliance on third party developers for content. With the same continued AAA third-party releases, a vastly overwhelming majority of first party exclusives, a massive army of development focussed on new IP investment for the future and a strengthening of revenues I'd say that the PS3 is not doing too shabby at the moment. None of what stated above changes the fact that Sony has lost massive amounts of marketshare. You may think that does not matter, but the loss leader philsophy Sony employs requires a commanding lead in marketshare to be profitable. It relies on software sales not only making for the losses on hardware but on R&D as well. Given their position in the market, Sony would be extremely fortunate to break even on the PS3 when all is said and done. Yes you'll notice I ignored the Wii, which is probably what 30 million Wii owners do regularly... Spoken like a true fanboy. Both Sony and Microsoft buried their heads in the sand when came to Nintendo. We've seen what that has gotten them.
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Honestly, I didn't think anyone had the nerve to argue that the Sony hadn't botched the PS3. Sony better be thankful for RRoD. Without it, it's likely that the PS3 would be even further behind the 360.
