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Rpruett on 06 April 2009
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Legend11 said:
RolStoppable said:
kennyrester said:
RolStoppable said:

Finally someone tries.

1. Microsoft will keep producing 360s until they stop selling. The first Xbox could have been continued all throughout 2006 on customer demand, but Microsoft chose not to, because they were losing so much money on it. The same won't be true for the 360 and that's why they will be producing it as long as people buy it.

2. The reason why Microsoft stopped making the Xbox was already explained. The PS2 still continues to sell, because customers are still interested in it. The PS2 also is a winning console, that's why it has such a long lifespan (just like the Atari 2600, NES, SNES, PS1, Game Boy and GBA). Systems that don't win their generation are usually discontinued quicker, because third party support dries up faster and customers lose interest and favor the winning system. Neither the 360 nor the PS3 are winners, so they won't enjoy an extended lifespan like the PS2.

3. and 4. With both of those things being about equal, as well as point 2 bringing another tie, everything leads to point 5.

5. Since both the 360 and PS3 aren't winning systems and their software support is so closely tied together, they will likely stop selling during the same year. Let's assume that's going to be the case by the end of 2013, for example. That gives the 360 an eight year lifespan and the PS3 a seven year lifespan, because the 360 was launched a year earlier.

 I think I might have found a (relatively small) flaw

 

This statement seems to jar a bit as, if your assumption about the ps3 and 360 being so closely tied together is true, then they have a 51.1% market share for third parties to sell to. This, coupled with relatively poor third party sales on wii, would mean that from the point of view of third party developers the ps3 and 360 are, together, this generations "winning system".

 

So, third party support will continue for both consoles and it'll come down to which company decides to take the initiative and release their next machine first, which, judging by the success they found releasing first this gen could very well be microsoft. This would presumably gradually switch the attention of both MS and xbox fans to the new console and lead to a decline in sales and eventual stop of support, which would hand the (frankly meaningless) prize of longest 7th gen HD lifespan to the ps3

First post so please be gentle when telling me how wrong I am

Third party sales on the Wii are healthy and numerous publishers have already stated that they are going to increase their support from this year onwards, because it's hard to turn profits off of HD games which are very costly to develop. On the Japanese side of things, the success of both handhelds is also taking away a lot of resources from the HD consoles. Depending on if you look at Japan or the whole world, there are three or two systems that are better options to make games for than the HD consoles.

Big franchises will remain on the HD consoles because they are making money, but over time more and more of the new IPs and smaller games will move either to the Wii or the handhelds (this is already happening), because the risk of losing money is much lower on those platforms. It's doubtful that third parties see the HD consoles as winning systems when it is so hard to make money on them (as can be seen in their financial reports).

 

I think the cost of HD game development is probably the most important factor for some companies, at least the ones known more for hardcore games, giving more support for the Wii.  For example if HD game development did not cost more than Wii game development it's likely that many of the companies having financial problems wouldn't be having them.  In fact they would likely be just as successful as last generation since many are making record revenue this generation.  DLC which is also more established on HD consoles would also make HD game development even more lucartive in that case.

As for more new IPs appearing on Wii, I agree if you're talking about casual games made for the expanded audiences or niche Japanese games.  If you mean hardcore games then I think you're mistaken because the 360, PS3, and PC captured that audience (just look at sales of games like MadWorld, CoD:WaW, etc) to see that.  I should correct that last statement, the Wii does have a hardcore segment but for the most part they buy Nintendo first-party games.

 

And just to add onto that.....Why is there this assumption that HD development costs are always going to remain 'too' costly for the publisher?  Many of the losses incurred by developers have gone into Research and Development,  Designing 'Next Gen' engines, etc.  One of the costliest parts for many or most of these developers is over.   The HD consoles have over 50% of the market share and maintain far more similarities than the Wii.   When you factor in the ability for games to hit all three platforms (PC, 360, PS3)  it becomes even more lucrative.   Also,  when you factor in the better networking across all three platforms it's easy to see why developers will continue to support the HD consoles first and foremost.

Addtionally (Sony atleast and possibly MS) are going to be matching smaller market PSN games and their budget.  So these publishers won't be flocking to the Wii as implied.  They could make a loss free quality title on the PSN and XBL and probably make nothing but profit for doing so.   While also gaining familiarity with the HD consoles in the process. 

 

Wii will get more support because it's shown it has staying power.  The Wii however will be very lucky to get much beyond 50 - 55% of the marketshare though.