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This 500k as a break-even point for  PS3 games is too high... In an interview for IGN Namco stuff claimed that costs of game developing for X360 and PS3 are on the same level. 250k for PS2 or PSP qualifies to a platinum (or greatest hit) status - they lower price etc. I think it means something. Considering higher price I think situation with next-gen looks pretty similar. Obviously the biggest guns like MGS4, Heavenly Sword, Lair or FFXIII cost a lot and break-even point will be set much higher than 500k but don't assume that games like Motorstorm or Gundam (!) are still in the red.