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HappySqurriel said:

Well, year over year PS3 sales seem to be down about 10% in 2009 and it doesn't have the benefit of having Grand Theft Auto 4 and Metal Gear Solid 4 being released later this year ...

About the only way I could se their estimate comming true is if they reduced the price by $100 fairly early in the year and had some unannounced big games to release this year.

 

But we will be seeing FFXIII in Japan, and possibly GT5 worldwide.

FFXIII in Japan will probably give the ps3 a boost similar to what MGS4 did worldwide.