Mario and Sonic will sell 4 million - Sega

[HappySqurriel]

I believe that Sega is being (way) too optimistic but this game has a ton going for it:

1. Massive licencing; Mario is still probably the largest videogame IP in the world being that 5 million games based on the Mario IP have been sold this year in North America alone, Sonic is tainted but still has a lot of fans, and The Olympics is a huge IP on a world wide basis.
2. Popular System; the Wii will likely continue being the most popular non-portable system by a wide margin when this game is (reasonably) new.
3. Popular Genre; mini-games and party-games have been very popular on the Wii (Wii Sports, Rayman, Mario Party 8)
4. Christmas Sales; many people will be buying the Wii as a gift this christmas and will likely buy Mario and Sonic at the Olympics along with the system because it seems like a safe gift choice.

I think it should be fairly easy for Sega to sell more than a Million copies, as it moves towards 2 or 3 Million copies it will need to be a reasonably polished fun game, and to pass the 4 million mark I think it will need to be the best party game released on the Wii in Q4 2007.