The PS3 will be supported for ten years, hence ten year life span. Regardless of whether another SCE hardware platform shows up before then, unless software support dries up completely and hardware sales drop off the charts, Sony will still be selling them in 2016.
As for it being a leading edge development platform by that time; ridiculous obviously.
But at this stage, neither MS nor SCE are particularly eager to jump the gun with yet another hardware platform, given the huge costs involved in starting a new generation and the trend everyone but Nintendo have adopted in selling hardware at a loss from the beginning.
If anything, the next hardware to be seen from any of the three console makers will be 1.5 model updates with new features at lower prices. The key drawback being that they'll only be able to play games that are still compatible with 1.0 hardware models.
Nintendo, more than MS or SCE are positioned best for this update first.
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