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Why would it drop to $99? I can't think of a single console in the past 9 years that hit $99 besides the GC.

MS is raking in major profit on each 360 sold. They're not going to sacrifice the $50+ they make per system sold (and their selling quite nicely at the moment) just so they can try and catch Nintendo, something that would never happen anyway. Hell, at $99 they'd probably be selling the things at a loss again.