@Demotruk
It may be unsupported, of course... this is a playground made of speculation, though I'm trying my best :)
Please note that even if you admit only 50% correlation between the first party games, that leaves out about 4.5M of copies of SMG or SSBB between the "casuals" and all the other hardcore players.
Given the userbase, that still accounts for a very minor tie ratio vs the one of Wii Sports and Wii Fit among "casuals" (1 in 5 at very best, and remember you have only 3 or 4 "slots" for each of them).
Edit: BTW, sorry if I dragged this too long, I tend to get lost in these sort of things because I do them all day long.







