I think it mainly depends on whether the game made profits or at least did break-even.
After the break-even point it really depends on the franchise. From a FF game for example I expect huge profits for SE and not only the gain a small one.
For MadWorld for example I think it will be a success if it dropped a fair amount of money for Sega and Platinum. I mean its a new IP in a really niche genre.
A real flop is for me a game like Haze which didnt generalize any profits as the companies biggest game of the year.