DFC: Game Industry to Reach $47 Billion in 2009; Xbox 360 to Finish Last?

[TheSource]

I don't have too much trouble with this report... It is still possible for Xbox 360 to sell as low as 30 million units I think in the worst (realistic) scenario, but I can't see PS3 reaching fewer than 40 million units. 360 should be able to reach numbers like 25/20/1 worldwide (Americas/Others/Japan) if it sees price drops and continued software support. To me the best case scenario is 65 million 360s sold, and the worst case scenario is 35 million 360s sold. Either way, Microsoft will make inroads this generation, and I think they'll end up close to 45,000,000. PS3 is going to sell better in the West when it drops under $400 for all skus. Japan is going to account for 4-8 million consoles, essentially by default. I basically see PS3's worst (realistic) case scenario as 20/15/5 (Others/Americas/Japan) - 40 million worldwide. It could yet be as high as 36/36/8 (Americas/Others/Japan) realistically. But I'm expecting something more like 28/18/6 (Others/Americas/Japan) - about 50-55 million worldwide - which should be enough to beat Microsoft later in the generation (09'-11') - in the same way Gamecube gained (some) ground on Xbox in 2005-2007 because sales kept trickling in. Wii's year end totals are going to dwarf the others though, at least through holiday 2009, and I think it will keep selling steadily through 2012, before declining to a complete standstill in 2015... DFC's scenario seems to be something like this (they say 180 mill to 210 mill consoles by 2012: 180 million scenario, with 360 slowing down, and Wii selling the most hardware 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 10' 11' 12' (Cumulative Life Time Sales are beneath the year) 360 1.5 7.8 14 20 25 29 32 34 PS3 0 1.2 7.5 16 24 31 36 40 Wii 0 3.0 20 40 65 85 99 108 210 million scenario, with 360 slowing down, and Wii selling the most hardware 360 1.5 7.8 15 21 26 31 34.5 37 (Cumulative lifetime sales are beneath the year) PS3 0 1.2 8.5 19 28 36 42 46 Wii 0 3.0 20 45 70 95 115 127