I would like to echo mrstickball's comments, as I see a very similar situation playing out. Wii continues to do crazy numbers due to lack of supply contraints, and it should be able to maintain about a 40% increase year over year simply by releasing a stream of new software late in the year. (I mean, Wii did great numbers in the last two quarters of 2008 without releasing hardly anything big on the software side.)
360 won't be able to maintain 60% increase year over year, simply because the sales were so good after the autumn price cut last year. Still, I predicted in January that this would be an excellent year for the 360, in both hardware and software, which is being borne out thus far. This will be the year that the 360 cements its second place status (although Sony fans will continue to argue for a miracle comeback for the PS3) by pulling 10m+ ahead in hardware.
I see PS3 having a rough year. The only game that would noticeably affect hardware sales is Gran Turismo, and that's not coming until Christmas, and most likely not until 2010. Notice how Killzone 2 did great software sales, and did nothing to attract new users by moving hardware. That's kind of the year I see ahead for Sony... The only other thing they can do is cut the hardware price, which ensures that Sony will never make a dime off of the PS3. Are they willing to go there? I think Microsoft is hoping that Sony does try slashing prices, so Microsoft can undercut them on price yet again and continue to bleed Sony dry of capital. Anyway, by the end of 2009, it will be clear to just about everyone that PS3 will remain in 3rd place permanently.
I wrote down 80m/40m/30m at the start of the year for hardware, and I'm still feeling pretty comfortable with them.
End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)
