I think it's rather premature (still) to argue where SO4 is going to be at in terms of American LTD sales.
However, looking at Blue Dragon, Star Ocean 4 had a much better 2nd week - it's up 7,000 units (23k to 30k). Blue Dragon had a similar opening (BD @ 60k, SO4 @ 65k), and Blue Dragon had great legs - it managed a 6x multiplier.
So if we want to only go with 2 weeks of data, it should trend like Blue Dragon, and hit 390,000 in North America. Far cry from SO3 in NA, but not nearly as bad as your 250k prediction.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.







