Well, I think the biggest thing(s) to take back from such trends, are to look at what is causing the big YoY changes.
Wii: The big advantage it's having this year is a total lack of supply constraints. We rarely see it fluctuate on a weekly basis, lending to the idea that supply is pretty steady, and is selling about as good as it can at this price. Because of the increased supply, we should expect it to continue to see robust sales at this +40% pace for awhile. The big question will be later this year: the Wii saw pretty good increases in 2008 in terms of supply. Can demand keep at this fever-pitch? I think that the Wii should see slightly lowering YoY increases the rest of the year, as the $250 price point gets saturated. However, I don't expect this to hurt it much. Nintendo may move to drop the price of the Wii in Japan, it's worst market. That could give it new life in Japan, which is the only bad region for the Wii.
X360: Obviously huge spike in sales, even more so than the Wii (in terms of % increase). The big note here is the fact that the price drop in September has fueled steady YoY increases, especially in Europe. Japan is also doing very well thanks to new, great-selling games. However, as the year progresses, it will be difficult for the 360 to maintain it's forward momentum, once September comes. The X360 could see that 60% YoY increase *if* Microsoft took steps to assure it's continued 'dominance' by lowering the price, or a PR/Marketing blitz when the Slim comes. I expect the 60% YoY increase to stay steady until September, then see it reduce to similar numbers till the end of the year.
PS3: Pretty bad, and will get worse. Last year, it was seeing strong YoY boosts thanks to the price drop. Now it's dropping in the absence of a price drop, with fiercely competitive prices on the 360, and continued popularity of the Wii. The Playstation 3's fate, on a YoY level, will souly be determined by if and when Sony drops the PS3 price to a more reasonable level. If it keeps at the atrocious $400 price point (which, as we can now tell, never worked for MS, either), I expect it to drop further and further down YoY, especially when last year's big hitter, MGS, is nowhere to be seen. If Sony is smart, they will launch GT5 later this year and the PS3 at the $300 price point. If they did such, they may see flat sales (YoY) vs. last year, and a great 2010. Otherwise, this year may be the last year of the PS3 from a viability standpoint. Sony stands to falter into the 'irrelevant' category like the Saturn and N64 did late in the PS1's lifespan. But unlike Nintendo or Sega did, back then, Sony holds all the cards, not the 3rd parties.
So it really comes down to who makes what moves. The YoY increases are not static. They can be greatly effected by good, and bad, moves. I still stand by my 80/42/31 prediction.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
